Monday, January 4, 2016

SUPER BOWL III: New York Jets 16 vs. Baltimore Colts 7

Sunday, January 12,1969


1234Final
New York Jets (11-3-0)076316
Baltimore Colts (13-1-0)00077

Game Info
Stadium Orange Bowl
Roof outdoors
Surface grass
Weather 66 degrees relative humidity 80%, wind 12 mph
Vegas Line Baltimore Colts -18.0
Over/Under 40.0 (under)
Super Bowl MVP Joe Namath


Win Probability

Pro-Football-Reference.com Win Probability - New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts, 1/12/1969Q1Q2Q3Q4EOGNYJ0.50CLT-10.5%-10.5%+12.9%+12.9%-13.2%-13.2%-16.9%-16.9%
Play IDWin Pct
10.903
20.905
30.891
40.905
50.897
60.915
70.911
80.912
90.926
100.932
110.936
120.929
130.939
140.929
150.921
160.945
170.939
180.931
190.921
200.887
210.894
220.9
230.868
240.876
250.873
260.896
270.911
280.902
290.898
300.877
310.889
320.89
330.886
340.942
350.933
360.937
370.87
380.877
390.871
400.849
410.83
420.841
430.837
440.794
450.772
460.777
470.736
480.728
490.672
500.695
510.674
520.751
530.749
540.725
550.678
560.641
570.652
580.547
590.518
600.51
610.528
620.551
630.592
640.639
650.646
660.775
670.757
680.625
690.629
700.633
710.691
720.69
730.7
740.683
750.588
760.608
770.439
780.412
790.395
800.4
810.388
820.348
830.399
840.466
850.457
860.397
870.419
880.392
890.355
900.296
910.318
920.327
930.263
940.279
950.279
960.208
970.222
980.166
990.173
1000.191
1010.219
1020.174
1030.177
1040.179
1050.15
1060.106
1070.109
1080.107
1090.118
1100.071
1110.03
1120.022
1130.025
1140.036
1150.035
1160.039
1170.038
1180.045
1190.044
1200.067
1210.08
1220.064
1230.015
1240.015
1250.014
1260.005
1270.002
1280.001
1290.001
1300.001
1310.002
1320.001
1330
1340
1350.001
1360.001
1370
1380.002
1390.001
1400.005
1410.002
1420.015
1430.015
1440.005
1450.002
1460.008
1470.053
1480.1
1490.099
1500.058
1510.021
1520.001
1530.001
1540.001
1550
1560
1570
1580
1590
1600
1610
1620
1630
Embed this graph...
The win probability graph is intended to be a measure of a team's chance of winning the game after every play of the game, based on the line, current score, and current field position. For a detailed explanation, see Neil's writeup on the Win Probability Model

Scoring


Team Stats


Passing, Rushing, & Receiving

Defense

Kick/Punt Returns

Kicking & Punting


Starting Lineups


Full Play-By-Play

Play Times Note  · Glossary  · SHARE  · Embed  · CSV  · Export  · PRE  · LINK  · ?
Quarter Time Down ToGo Location Detail NYJ CLT EPB EPA Win%

1st Quarter
1 15:00


Lou Michaels kicks off 62 yards, returned by Earl Christy for 25 yards 0 0 0 0.48 90.3
1 14:45 1 10 NYJ 23 Matt Snell for 3 yards 0 0 0.48 0.34 90.5
1 14:13 2 7 NYJ 26 Matt Snell for 9 yards 0 0 0.34 1.27 89.1
1 13:41 1 10 NYJ 35 Emerson Boozer for -4 yards 0 0 1.27 0.18 90.5
1 13:09 2 14 NYJ 31 Joe Namath pass complete to Matt Snell for 9 yards 0 0 0.18 0.7 89.7
1 12:37 3 5 NYJ 40 Matt Snell for -2 yards 0 0 0.7 -0.85 91.5
1 12:05 4 7 NYJ 38 0 0 -0.85 -0.52 91.1
1 11:33 4 2 NYJ 43 Curley Johnson punts 39 yards 0 0 -0.52 -0.74 91.2
1 10:55 1 10 CLT 27 Earl Morrall pass complete to John Mackey for 19 yards 0 0 0.74 1.99 92.6
1 10:29 1 10 CLT 46 Tom Matte for 10 yards 0 0 1.99 2.65 93.2
1 10:03 1 10 NYJ 44 Jerry Hill for 7 yards 0 0 2.65 3.06 93.6
1 9:37 2 3 NYJ 37 Tom Matte for 1 yard 0 0 3.06 2.48 92.9
1 9:11 3 2 NYJ 36 Jerry Hill for 5 yards 0 0 2.48 3.51 93.9
1 8:45 1 10 NYJ 31 Jerry Hill for -3 yards 0 0 3.51 2.56 92.9
1 8:19 2 13 NYJ 34 Earl Morrall pass incomplete intended for Jimmy Orr 0 0 2.56 1.88 92.1
1 7:53 3 13 NYJ 34 Earl Morrall pass complete to Tom Mitchell for 15 yards 0 0 1.88 4.31 94.5
1 7:27 1 10 NYJ 19 Earl Morrall pass incomplete intended for Willie Richardson 0 0 4.31 3.75 93.9
1 7:01 2 10 NYJ 19 Earl Morrall pass incomplete intended for Tom Mitchell 0 0 3.75 3.03 93.1
1 6:35 3 10 NYJ 19 Earl Morrall for no gain 0 0 3.03 2.18 92.1
1 6:09 4 10 NYJ 19 Lou Michaels 27 yard field goal no good 0 0 2.18 -0.28 88.7
1 5:33 1 10 NYJ 20 Joe Namath pass incomplete intended for Matt Snell 0 0 0.28 -0.27 89.4
1 5:12 2 10 NYJ 20 Joe Namath pass complete to Pete Lammons for 2 yards 0 0 -0.27 -0.69 90.0
1 4:51 3 8 NYJ 22 Joe Namath pass complete to Bill Mathis for 13 yards 0 0 -0.69 1.27 86.8
1 4:30 1 10 NYJ 35 Joe Namath pass incomplete intended for Don Maynard 0 0 1.27 0.72 87.6
1 4:09 2 10 NYJ 35 Joe Namath pass complete to George Sauer for 6 yards 0 0 0.72 0.83 87.3
1 3:48 3 4 NYJ 41 Joe Namath pass incomplete intended for George Sauer 0 0 0.83 -0.65 89.6
1 3:27 4 4 NYJ 41 Curley Johnson punts 38 yards 0 0 -0.65 -1.73 91.1
1 3:05 1 10 CLT 42 Earl Morrall pass incomplete intended for John Mackey 0 0 1.73 1.19 90.2
1 2:49 2 10 CLT 42 Jerry Hill for 3 yards 0 0 1.19 0.89 89.8
1 2:33 3 7 CLT 45 Earl Morrall pass incomplete intended for Willie Richardson 0 0 0.89 -0.39 87.7
1 2:17 4 7 CLT 45 David Lee punts 51 yards 0 0 -0.39 0.38 88.9
1 1:58 1 10 NYJ 4 Matt Snell for 4 yards 0 0 -0.38 -0.49 89.0
1 1:24 2 6 NYJ 8 Matt Snell for 5 yards 0 0 -0.49 -0.37 88.6
1 0:50 3 1 NYJ 13 Joe Namath pass complete to George Sauer for 3 yards. George Sauer fumbles, recovered by Ron Porter 0 0 -0.37 -4.78 94.2
1 0:14 1 10 NYJ 12 Jerry Hill for -1 yards 0 0 4.78 3.94 93.3
Quarter Time Down ToGo Location Detail NYJ CLT EPB EPA Win%

2nd Quarter
2 15:00 2 11 NYJ 13 Tom Matte for 7 yards 0 0 3.94 4.38 93.7
2 14:35 3 4 NYJ 6 Earl Morrall pass incomplete intended for Tom Mitchell is intercepted by Randy Beverly 0 0 4.38 -0.28 87.0
2 14:09 1 10 NYJ 20 Matt Snell for 1 yard 0 0 0.28 -0.13 87.7
2 13:44 2 9 NYJ 21 Matt Snell for 7 yards 0 0 -0.13 0.1 87.1
2 13:19 3 2 NYJ 28 Matt Snell for 6 yards 0 0 0.1 1.2 84.9
2 12:54 1 10 NYJ 34 Matt Snell for 12 yards 0 0 1.2 1.99 83.0
2 12:29 1 10 NYJ 46 Joe Namath pass incomplete intended for George Sauer 0 0 1.99 1.45 84.1
2 12:04 2 10 NYJ 46 Joe Namath pass complete to Bill Mathis for 6 yards 0 0 1.45 1.55 83.7
2 11:39 3 4 CLT 48 Joe Namath pass complete to George Sauer for 14 yards 0 0 1.55 3.31 79.4
2 11:14 1 10 CLT 34 Joe Namath pass complete to George Sauer for 11 yards 0 0 3.31 4.04 77.2
2 10:49 1 10 CLT 23 Emerson Boozer for 2 yards 0 0 4.04 3.77 77.7
2 10:24 2 8 CLT 21 Joe Namath pass complete to Matt Snell for 12 yards 0 0 3.77 5.14 73.6
2 9:59 1 9 CLT 9 Matt Snell for 5 yards 0 0 5.14 5.34 72.8
2 9:34 2 4 CLT 4 Matt Snell for 4 yards, touchdown 7 0 5.34 7 67.2
2 9:03


Curley Johnson kicks off 58 yards, returned by Preston Pearson for 26 yards 7 0 0 0.81 69.5
2 8:43 1 10 CLT 28 Earl Morrall pass incomplete intended for Willie Richardson 7 0 0.81 0.26 67.4
2 8:22 2 10 CLT 28 Earl Morrall pass complete to Tom Matte for 30 yards 7 0 0.26 2.79 75.1
2 8:01 1 10 NYJ 42 Jerry Hill for 4 yards 7 0 2.79 2.78 74.9
2 7:40 2 6 NYJ 38 Tom Matte for no gain 7 0 2.78 2.08 72.5
2 7:19 3 6 NYJ 38 Earl Morrall pass incomplete intended for John Mackey 7 0 2.08 0.72 67.8
2 6:58 4 6 NYJ 38 Lou Michaels 46 yard field goal no good 7 0 0.72 -0.28 64.1
2 6:37 1 10 NYJ 20 Emerson Boozer for 1 yard 7 0 0.28 -0.13 65.2
2 6:19 2 9 NYJ 21 Joe Namath pass complete to George Sauer for 35 yards 7 0 -0.13 2.65 54.7
2 6:01 1 10 CLT 44 Matt Snell for 9 yards 7 0 2.65 3.33 51.8
2 5:43 2 1 CLT 35 Matt Snell for 3 yards 7 0 3.33 3.45 51.0
2 5:25 1 10 CLT 32 Joe Namath pass incomplete intended for Don Maynard 7 0 3.45 2.9 52.8
2 5:07 2 10 CLT 32 Joe Namath pass incomplete intended for Bake Turner 7 0 2.9 2.21 55.1
2 4:49 3 10 CLT 32 Joe Namath sacked for -2 yards 7 0 2.21 1.06 59.2
2 4:31 4 12 CLT 34 Jim Turner 41 yard field goal no good 7 0 1.06 -0.28 63.9
2 4:13 1 10 CLT 20 Earl Morrall pass complete to Willie Richardson for 6 yards 7 0 0.28 0.54 64.6
2 3:40 2 4 CLT 26 Tom Matte for 58 yards 7 0 0.54 4.51 77.5
2 3:07 1 10 NYJ 16 Jerry Hill for 1 yard 7 0 4.51 4.05 75.7
2 2:34 2 9 NYJ 15 Earl Morrall pass incomplete intended for Willie Richardson is intercepted by Johnny Sample 7 0 4.05 0.38 62.5
2 2:00 1 10 NYJ 2 Matt Snell for 2 yards 7 0 -0.38 -0.63 62.9
2 1:36 2 8 NYJ 4 Matt Snell for 3 yards 7 0 -0.63 -0.84 63.3
2 1:12 3 5 NYJ 7 Matt Snell for no gain 7 0 -0.84 -2.49 69.1
2 1:04 4 5 NYJ 7 Curley Johnson punts 32 yards 7 0 -2.49 -2.49 69.0
2 0:57 4 5 NYJ 7 Curley Johnson punts 39 yards 7 0 -2.49 -2.79 70.0
2 0:43 1 10 NYJ 42 Earl Morrall pass complete to Jerry Hill for 1 yard 7 0 2.79 2.38 68.3
2 0:25 2 9 NYJ 41 Earl Morrall pass incomplete intended for Jerry Hill is intercepted by Jim Hudson at NYJ-12 and returned for 9 yards 7 0 2.38 -0.34 58.8

End of Half70-0.340
Quarter Time Down ToGo Location Detail NYJ CLT EPB EPA Win%

3rd Quarter
3 15:00


-- 7 0 0 0.61 60.8
3 14:43 1 10 CLT 25 Tom Matte for 8 yards 7 0 0.61 -3.38 43.9
3 14:25 1 10 CLT 33 Emerson Boozer for 8 yards 7 0 3.38 3.92 41.2
3 13:57 2 2 CLT 25 Matt Snell for 4 yards 7 0 3.92 4.17 39.5
3 13:29 1 10 CLT 21 Emerson Boozer for 2 yards 7 0 4.17 3.9 40.0
3 13:01 2 8 CLT 19 Joe Namath pass complete to Matt Snell for 5 yards 7 0 3.9 4.02 38.8
3 12:33 3 3 CLT 14 Matt Snell for 3 yards 7 0 4.02 4.84 34.8
3 12:05 1 10 CLT 11 Emerson Boozer for -5 yards 7 0 4.84 3.44 39.9
3 11:37 2 15 CLT 16 Joe Namath sacked for -9 yards 7 0 3.44 1.75 46.6
3 11:09 3 24 CLT 25 Joe Namath pass incomplete intended for Pete Lammons 7 0 1.75 1.8 45.7
3 10:41 4 24 CLT 25 Jim Turner 32 yard field goal good 10 0 1.8 3 39.7
3 10:08


Curley Johnson kicks off 55 yards, returned by Timmy Brown for 21 yards 10 0 0 0.67 41.9
3 9:58 1 10 CLT 26 Earl Morrall pass incomplete intended for John Mackey 10 0 0.67 0.13 39.2
3 9:30 2 10 CLT 26 Earl Morrall pass complete to Jerry Hill for no gain 10 0 0.13 -0.56 35.5
3 9:02 3 10 CLT 26 Earl Morrall for -2 yards 10 0 -0.56 -1.77 29.6
3 8:34 4 12 CLT 24 David Lee punts 44 yards 10 0 -1.77 -1.07 31.8
3 8:04 1 10 NYJ 32 Joe Namath pass complete to Bill Mathis for 1 yard 10 0 1.07 0.66 32.7
3 7:42 2 9 NYJ 33 Joe Namath pass complete to George Sauer for 14 yards 10 0 0.66 2.06 26.3
3 7:20 1 10 NYJ 47 Joe Namath pass incomplete intended for Don Maynard 10 0 2.06 1.52 27.9
3 6:58 2 10 NYJ 47 Emerson Boozer for 4 yards 10 0 1.52 1.36 27.9
3 6:36 3 6 CLT 49 Joe Namath pass complete to Pete Lammons for 11 yards 10 0 1.36 3.05 20.8
3 6:14 1 10 CLT 38 Joe Namath pass incomplete intended for Don Maynard 10 0 3.05 2.51 22.2
3 5:52 2 10 CLT 38 Joe Namath pass complete to Matt Snell for 14 yards 10 0 2.51 3.97 16.6
3 5:30 1 10 CLT 24 Bill Mathis for 1 yard 10 0 3.97 3.57 17.3
3 5:08 2 9 CLT 23 Joe Namath pass incomplete intended for Don Maynard 10 0 3.57 2.87 19.1
3 4:46 3 9 CLT 23 Babe Parilli pass incomplete intended for George Sauer 10 0 2.87 1.93 21.9
3 4:24 4 9 CLT 23 Jim Turner 30 yard field goal good 13 0 1.93 3 17.4
3 3:58


Curley Johnson kicks off 60 yards, touchback 13 0 0 0.28 17.7
3 3:51 1 10 CLT 20 Tom Matte for 5 yards 13 0 0.28 0.41 17.9
3 3:30 2 5 CLT 25 Johnny Unitas pass complete to Tom Matte for no gain 13 0 0.41 -0.3 15.0
3 3:09 3 5 CLT 25 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for Jimmy Orr 13 0 -0.3 -1.7 10.6
3 2:48 4 5 CLT 25 David Lee punts 38 yards 13 0 -1.7 -1.4 10.9
3 2:24 1 10 NYJ 37 Matt Snell for 3 yards 13 0 1.4 1.26 10.7
3 1:56 2 7 NYJ 40 Joe Namath pass incomplete intended for George Sauer 13 0 1.26 0.56 11.8
3 1:28 3 7 NYJ 40 Joe Namath pass complete to George Sauer for 11 yards 13 0 0.56 2.32 7.1
3 1:00 1 10 CLT 49 Joe Namath pass complete to George Sauer for 39 yards 13 0 2.32 4.91 3.0
3 0:32 1 10 CLT 10 Matt Snell for 4 yards 13 0 4.91 5.53 2.2
Quarter Time Down ToGo Location Detail NYJ CLT EPB EPA Win%

4th Quarter
4 15:00 2 3 CLT 3 Matt Snell for no gain 13 0 5.53 4.72 2.5
4 14:29 3 3 CLT 3 Bill Mathis for 1 yard 13 0 4.72 3.25 3.6
4 13:58 4 2 CLT 2 Jim Turner 9 yard field goal good 16 0 3.25 3 3.5
4 13:26


Curley Johnson kicks off 66 yards, returned by Preston Pearson for 33 yards 16 0 0 0.74 3.9
4 13:10 1 10 CLT 27 Johnny Unitas pass complete to John Mackey for 5 yards 16 0 0.74 0.87 3.8
4 12:53 2 5 CLT 32 Tom Matte for 7 yards 16 0 0.87 1.53 4.5
4 12:36 1 10 CLT 39 Johnny Unitas pass complete to Willie Richardson for 5 yards 16 0 1.53 1.66 4.4
4 12:19 2 5 CLT 44 Tom Matte for 19 yards 16 0 1.66 3.12 6.7
4 12:02 1 10 NYJ 37 Jerry Hill for 12 yards 16 0 3.12 3.91 8.0
4 11:45 1 10 NYJ 25 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for Willie Richardson 16 0 3.91 3.36 6.4
4 11:28 2 10 NYJ 25 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for Jimmy Orr is intercepted by Randy Beverly 16 0 3.36 -0.28 1.5
4 11:06 1 10 NYJ 20 Emerson Boozer for 2 yards 16 0 0.28 0 1.5
4 10:32 2 8 NYJ 22 Matt Snell for 2 yards 16 0 0 -0.43 1.4
4 9:58 3 6 NYJ 24 Emerson Boozer for 7 yards 16 0 -0.43 1 0.5
4 9:24 1 10 NYJ 31 Matt Snell for 10 yards 16 0 1 2.65 0.2
4 8:50 1 10 CLT 44 Matt Snell for 7 yards 16 0 2.65 3.06 0.1
4 8:16 2 3 CLT 37 Emerson Boozer for 2 yards 16 0 3.06 2.61 0.1
4 7:42 3 1 CLT 35 Bill Mathis for no gain 16 0 2.61 1 0.1
4 7:08 4 1 CLT 35 Jim Turner 42 yard field goal no good 16 0 1 -0.28 0.2
4 6:34 1 10 CLT 20 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for John Mackey 16 0 0.28 -0.27 0.1
4 6:21 2 10 CLT 20 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for Willie Richardson 16 0 -0.27 -0.96 0.0
4 6:08 3 10 CLT 20 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for John Mackey 16 0 -0.96 -2.03 0.0
4 5:55 4 10 CLT 20 Johnny Unitas pass complete to Jimmy Orr for 17 yards 16 0 -2.03 1.4 0.1
4 5:42 1 10 CLT 37 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for Willie Richardson 16 0 1.4 0.86 0.1
4 5:29 2 10 CLT 37 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for Jerry Hill 16 0 0.86 0.17 0.0
4 5:16 3 10 CLT 37 Johnny Unitas pass complete to John Mackey for 11 yards 16 0 0.17 3.12 0.2
4 5:03 1 10 NYJ 37 Tom Matte for 1 yard 16 0 3.12 2.71 0.1
4 4:50 2 9 NYJ 36 Johnny Unitas pass complete to Willie Richardson for 21 yards 16 0 2.71 4.58 0.5
4 4:37 1 10 NYJ 15 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for Tom Matte 16 0 4.58 3.95 0.2
4 4:24 2 10 NYJ 15 Johnny Unitas pass complete to Jimmy Orr for 11 yards 16 0 3.95 6.74 1.5
4 4:11 1 2 NYJ 2 16 0 6.74 6.97 1.5
4 3:58 1 1 NYJ 1 Johnny Unitas for no gain 16 0 6.97 5.91 0.5
4 3:45 2 1 NYJ 1 Tom Matte for no gain 16 0 5.91 5.17 0.2
4 3:32 3 1 NYJ 1 Jerry Hill for 1 yard, touchdown 16 7 5.17 7 0.8
4 3:14 1 10 NYJ 44 Johnny Unitas pass complete to Willie Richardson for 6 yards 16 7 2.65 2.92 5.3
4 3:14 2 4 NYJ 38 Johnny Unitas pass complete to Jimmy Orr for 14 yards 16 7 2.92 3.97 10.0
4 3:04 1 10 NYJ 24 Johnny Unitas pass complete to Willie Richardson for 5 yards 16 7 3.97 4.12 9.9
4 2:54 2 5 NYJ 19 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for Willie Richardson 16 7 4.12 3.41 5.8
4 2:44 3 5 NYJ 19 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for Jimmy Orr 16 7 3.41 2.24 2.1
4 2:34 4 5 NYJ 19 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for Jimmy Orr 16 7 2.24 -0.28 0.1
4 2:21 1 10 NYJ 20 Matt Snell for 1 yard 16 7 0.28 -0.13 0.1
4 2:12 2 9 NYJ 21 Matt Snell for 6 yards 16 7 -0.13 -0.03 0.1
4 2:03 3 3 NYJ 27 Matt Snell for 4 yards 16 7 -0.03 1 0.0
4 1:54 1 10 NYJ 31 Matt Snell for 2 yards 16 7 1 0.73 0.0
4 1:18 2 8 NYJ 33 16 7 0.73 0.06 0.0
4 1:08 2 13 NYJ 28 Matt Snell for 1 yard 16 7 0.06 -0.49 0.0
4 0:35 3 12 NYJ 29 16 7 -0.49 -1.15 0.0
4 0:22 3 17 NYJ 24 Matt Snell for 3 yards 16 7 -1.15 -1.57 0.0
4 0:15 4 14 NYJ 27 Curley Johnson punts 39 yards 16 7 -1.57 -1.2 0.0
4 0:08 1 10 CLT 34 Johnny Unitas pass incomplete intended for Willie Richardson 16 7 1.2 0.66 0.0
4 0:05 2 10 CLT 34 Johnny Unitas pass complete to Willie Richardson for 15 yards 16 7 0.66 2.19 0.0

End of Regulation1672.190
Scoring plays are highlighted in green and accepted penalties are highlighted in gray, while changes of possession are denoted by a bold line. Expected points before and after are relative to the team possessing the ball at the start of the play (though kickoffs are assumed to be in possession of the receiving team).

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