Expected points are an estimate of points per
play based on down, distance, and yard line. Points given for offense
and defense are offensive/defensive plays + penalties on which there was
no play (eg, a false start). Special teams are all kicking + punting
plays. Points are zeroed out at the end of halves.
The win probability
graph is intended to be a measure of a team's chance of winning the
game after every play of the game, based on the line, current score, and
current field position. For a detailed explanation, see Neil's writeup
on the Win Probability Model
Play Times Note · Glossary · SHARE · Embed · CSV · Export · PRE · LINK · ?
Quarter
Time
Down
ToGo
Location
Detail
PIT
DAL
EPB
EPA
Win%
1st Quarter
1
15:00
PIT 30
--
0
0
0
-0.87
85.7
1
1
10
DAL 29
--
0
0
0.87
0.33
84.8
1
2
10
DAL 29
0
0
0.33
2.19
87.8
1
1
10
DAL 49
--
0
0
2.19
3.71
89.9
1
1
10
PIT 28
--
0
0
3.71
3.44
89.6
1
2
8
PIT 26
--
0
0
3.44
2.74
88.6
1
3
8
PIT 26
--
0
0
2.74
1.89
87.4
1
4
6
PIT 24
good
0
3
1.89
3
89.0
1
12:05
DAL 30
--
0
3
0
-0.61
87.7
1
1
10
PIT 25
--
0
3
0.61
0.33
88.1
1
2
8
PIT 27
--
0
3
0.33
-0.1
88.8
1
3
6
PIT 29
0
3
-0.1
-1.11
90.2
1
4
1
PIT 34
0
3
-1.11
-0.61
89.5
1
9:58
1
10
DAL 25
--
0
3
0.61
0.87
89.6
1
2
4
DAL 31
--
0
3
0.87
0.43
89.0
1
3
2
DAL 33
(no play)
0
3
0.43
-0.23
88.0
1
3
7
DAL 28
0
3
-0.23
1.53
90.5
1
1
10
DAL 39
0
3
1.53
4.65
94.0
1
1
10
PIT 14
--
0
3
4.65
4.71
94.0
1
2
6
PIT 10
--
0
3
4.71
3.26
92.6
1
3
9
PIT 13
0
3
3.26
6.51
95.5
1
1
3
PIT 3
, touchdown
0
9
6.51
7
95.1
1
extra point good
0
10
0
0
95.9
1
5:23
DAL 30
--
0
10
0
-0.74
95.3
1
1
10
PIT 27
--
0
10
0.74
0.2
95.7
1
2
10
PIT 27
--
0
10
0.2
-0.23
96.0
1
3
8
PIT 29
0
10
-0.23
1.6
94.5
1
1
10
PIT 40
Timeout #1 by Dallas Cowboys
0
10
0
0
1
1
10
PIT 40
--
0
10
1.6
1.86
94.3
1
2
4
PIT 46
--
0
10
1.86
1.16
94.9
1
3
4
PIT 46
--
0
10
1.16
-0.13
95.9
1
4
1
PIT 49
--
0
10
-0.13
2.32
93.8
1
1
10
DAL 49
--
0
10
2.32
1.78
94.4
1
2
10
DAL 49
--
0
10
1.78
1.36
94.7
1
3
8
DAL 47
0
10
1.36
3.18
92.9
1
1
10
DAL 36
--
0
10
3.18
0.88
95.1
1
2
23
DAL 49
0
10
0.88
1.55
94.6
Quarter
Time
Down
ToGo
Location
Detail
PIT
DAL
EPB
EPA
Win%
2nd Quarter
2
5:23
3
13
DAL 39
--
0
10
1.55
0.66
95.3
2
4
13
DAL 39
, touchback
0
10
0.66
-0.28
96.1
2
14:47
1
10
DAL 20
0
10
0.28
0.41
96.1
2
2
5
DAL 25
0
10
0.41
1.47
96.8
2
1
10
DAL 38
--
0
10
1.47
0.92
96.4
2
2
10
DAL 38
0
10
0.92
2.26
97.3
2
1
10
DAL 50
--
0
10
2.26
2.25
97.3
2
2
6
PIT 46
(no play)
0
10
2.25
2.93
97.6
2
2
1
PIT 41
--
0
10
2.93
3.12
97.7
2
1
10
PIT 37
0
10
3.12
2.98
97.6
2
2
7
PIT 34
--
0
10
2.98
2.54
97.4
2
3
5
PIT 32
0
10
2.54
1.72
97.0
2
4
1
PIT 28
--
0
10
1.72
3.97
98.1
2
1
10
PIT 24
(no play)
0
10
3.97
3.31
97.8
2
1
20
PIT 34
0
10
3.31
4.85
98.4
2
2
1
PIT 15
--
0
10
4.85
4.17
98.1
2
3
1
PIT 15
--
0
10
4.17
2.32
97.3
2
4
4
PIT 18
good
0
13
2.32
3
97.6
2
6:03
DAL 30
--
0
13
0
-1.07
97.3
2
1
10
PIT 32
--
0
13
1.07
0.53
97.6
2
2
10
PIT 32
--
0
13
0.53
-0.29
98.0
2
3
11
PIT 31
--
0
13
-0.29
-1.31
98.4
2
4
11
PIT 31
0
13
-1.31
0.28
97.7
2
4:56
1
10
DAL 14
--
0
13
-0.28
-0.75
97.5
2
2
10
DAL 14
--
0
13
-0.75
-1.4
97.1
2
3
10
DAL 14
--
0
13
-1.4
-2.47
96.3
2
4
10
DAL 14
0
13
-2.47
-1.99
96.7
2
3:52
1
10
PIT 46
--
0
13
1.99
1.45
97.1
2
2
10
PIT 46
--
0
13
1.45
-0.56
98.2
2
3
20
PIT 36
0
13
-0.56
0.27
97.8
2
4
1
DAL 45
--
0
13
0.27
2.79
96.1
2
1
10
DAL 42
--
0
13
2.79
2.24
96.5
2
2
10
DAL 42
--
0
13
2.24
3.58
95.4
2
1
10
DAL 30
--
0
13
3.58
3.44
95.5
2
2
7
DAL 27
--
0
13
3.44
2.74
96.1
2
3
7
DAL 27
0
13
2.74
4.24
94.7
2
1
10
DAL 20
Timeout #1 by Pittsburgh Steelers
0
13
0
0
2
1
10
DAL 20
--
0
13
4.24
2.48
96.4
2
2
19
DAL 29
0
13
2.48
2.61
96.2
2
3
13
DAL 23
Timeout #2 by Pittsburgh Steelers
0
13
0
0
2
3
13
DAL 23
0
13
2.61
5.83
92.8
2
1
6
DAL 6
Timeout #3 by Pittsburgh Steelers
0
13
0
0
2
1
6
DAL 6
, touchdown
6
13
5.83
7
92.6
2
extra point good
7
13
0
0
91.1
2
0:13
PIT 30
--
7
13
0
-1.47
93.2
2
1
10
DAL 38
--
7
13
1.47
0.79
91.0
End of Half
7
13
0.79
0
Quarter
Time
Down
ToGo
Location
Detail
PIT
DAL
EPB
EPA
Win%
3rd Quarter
3
15:00
DAL 30
--
7
13
0
-1.6
87.9
3
1
10
PIT 40
--
7
13
1.6
1.05
89.0
3
2
10
PIT 40
7
13
1.05
2.26
86.5
3
1
10
PIT 50
--
7
13
2.26
3.25
84.1
3
1
10
DAL 35
--
7
13
3.25
2.97
84.8
3
2
8
DAL 33
--
7
13
2.97
2.28
86.4
3
3
8
DAL 33
--
7
13
2.28
1.15
88.8
3
4
8
DAL 33
, touchback
7
13
1.15
-0.28
91.4
3
12:07
1
10
DAL 20
--
7
13
0.28
-0.46
90.1
3
2
11
DAL 19
7
13
-0.46
1.27
93.0
3
1
10
DAL 35
--
7
13
1.27
0.18
91.2
3
2
14
DAL 31
7
13
0.18
0.43
91.7
3
3
7
DAL 38
--
7
13
0.43
-0.85
89.3
3
4
7
DAL 38
7
13
-0.85
-1.33
88.3
3
9:14
1
10
PIT 36
--
7
13
1.33
1.33
88.1
3
2
6
PIT 40
--
7
13
1.33
2.06
86.4
3
1
10
PIT 47
--
7
13
2.06
1.65
87.4
3
2
9
PIT 48
--
7
13
1.65
0.96
89.0
3
3
9
PIT 48
--
7
13
0.96
-4.37
96.8
3
7:18
1
10
PIT 18
7
13
4.37
6.97
98.6
3
1
1
PIT 1
--
7
19
6.97
7
98.1
3
extra point good
7
20
0
0
98.6
3
6:42
DAL 30
--
7
20
0
0.22
98.7
3
1
10
PIT 15
--
7
20
-0.22
-1.07
99.0
3
2
14
PIT 11
--
7
20
-1.07
-1
99.0
3
3
7
PIT 18
7
20
-1
0.67
98.3
3
1
10
PIT 26
--
7
20
0.67
0.13
98.6
3
2
10
PIT 26
7
20
0.13
0.63
98.3
3
3
1
PIT 35
--
7
20
0.63
1.53
97.8
3
1
10
PIT 39
7
20
1.53
2.07
97.4
3
2
2
PIT 47
--
7
20
2.07
1.36
97.9
3
3
2
PIT 47
--
7
20
1.36
-0.26
98.7
3
4
2
PIT 47
--
7
20
-0.26
-2.46
99.4
3
1:26
1
10
PIT 47
--
7
20
2.46
2.72
99.7
3
2
4
PIT 41
--
7
20
2.72
2.01
99.6
3
3
4
PIT 41
--
7
20
2.01
0.53
99.3
3
4
4
PIT 41
, touchback
7
20
0.53
-0.28
99.0
3
0:33
1
10
PIT 20
7
20
0.28
1.07
98.8
3
1
10
PIT 32
--
7
20
1.07
1.2
98.7
Quarter
Time
Down
ToGo
Location
Detail
PIT
DAL
EPB
EPA
Win%
4th Quarter
4
0:33
2
5
PIT 37
--
7
20
1.2
2.19
99.9
4
1
10
PIT 49
7
20
2.19
3.25
99.9
4
1
10
DAL 35
7
20
3.25
2.97
99.9
4
2
8
DAL 33
7
20
2.97
2.94
99.9
4
3
3
DAL 28
7
20
2.94
4.17
99.9
4
1
10
DAL 21
7
20
4.17
3.9
99.9
4
2
8
DAL 19
--
7
20
3.9
3.18
99.9
4
3
8
DAL 19
Timeout #1 by Pittsburgh Steelers
7
20
0
0
4
3
8
DAL 19
--
7
20
3.18
1.59
99.9
4
4
17
DAL 28
good
10
20
1.59
3
99.9
4
11:20
PIT 30
--
10
20
0
2.13
96.2
4
1
10
PIT 48
10
20
2.13
2.92
95.0
4
1
10
DAL 40
10
20
2.92
3.64
93.6
4
1
10
DAL 29
10
20
3.64
4.05
92.6
4
2
3
DAL 22
--
10
20
4.05
4.44
91.7
4
1
10
DAL 17
10
20
4.44
4.89
90.4
4
2
4
DAL 11
10
20
4.89
6.06
86.6
4
1
5
DAL 5
--
10
20
6.06
5.72
87.8
4
2
2
DAL 2
--
10
20
5.72
5.17
89.6
4
3
1
DAL 1
--
16
20
5.17
7
86.8
4
extra point good
17
20
0
0
82.8
4
6:36
PIT 30
--
17
20
0
0.35
82.2
4
1
10
DAL 12
17
20
-0.35
1.2
89.7
4
1
10
DAL 34
--
17
20
1.2
0.79
88.0
4
2
9
DAL 35
--
17
20
0.79
-0.96
78.4
4
3
17
DAL 27
--
17
20
-0.96
-1.57
74.2
4
4
17
DAL 27
17
20
-1.57
-1.07
77.7
4
4:15
1
10
PIT 32
--
17
20
1.07
0.53
82.8
4
2
10
PIT 32
--
17
20
0.53
-5.83
99.7
4
4:01
1
6
PIT 6
--
17
20
5.83
5.34
99.6
4
2
4
PIT 4
Timeout #2 by Pittsburgh Steelers
17
20
0
0
4
2
4
PIT 4
--
17
26
5.34
7
99.8
4
extra point good
17
27
0
0
99.9
4
3:43
DAL 30
--
17
27
0
-0.54
99.9
4
1
10
PIT 24
17
27
0.54
1.27
99.8
4
1
10
PIT 35
17
27
1.27
1.94
99.6
4
2
1
PIT 44
(no play)
17
27
1.94
2.19
99.5
4
1
10
PIT 49
17
27
2.19
2.46
99.3
4
2
4
DAL 45
--
17
27
2.46
1.75
99.6
4
3
4
DAL 45
17
27
1.75
2.92
99.0
4
1
10
DAL 40
--
17
27
2.92
2.37
99.4
4
2
10
DAL 40
Timeout #1 by Dallas Cowboys
17
27
0
0
4
2
10
DAL 40
--
17
27
2.37
1.68
99.7
4
3
10
DAL 40
--
17
27
1.68
0.59
99.9
4
4
10
DAL 40
--
17
27
0.59
-1.6
99.9
4
1:42
1
10
DAL 40
--
17
27
1.6
1.05
99.9
4
2
10
DAL 40
Timeout #3 by Pittsburgh Steelers
17
27
0
0
4
2
10
DAL 40
--
17
27
1.05
0.23
99.9
4
3
11
DAL 39
--
17
27
0.23
-0.85
99.9
4
4
12
DAL 38
(no play)
17
27
-0.85
-1.18
99.9
4
4
17
DAL 33
17
27
-1.18
-1.73
99.9
4
0:03
1
10
PIT 42
--
17
27
1.73
-2.79
99.9
End of Regulation
17
27
-2.79
0
Scoring plays are highlighted in green and accepted penalties are highlighted in gray,
while changes of possession are denoted by a bold line. Expected points
before and after are relative to the team possessing the ball at the
start of the play (though kickoffs are assumed to be in possession of
the receiving team).
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