Wednesday, January 6, 2016

SUPER BOWL XXVII: Dallas Cowboys 52 vs. Buffalo Bills 17

Sunday, January 31,1993

1234Final
Dallas Cowboys (13-3-0)141432152
Buffalo Bills (11-5-0)737017

Game Info
Stadium Rose Bowl
Start Time (ET) 6:30pm
Roof outdoors
Weather 56 degrees relative humidity 63%, wind 10 mph
Vegas Line Dallas Cowboys -6.5
Over/Under 45.0 (over)
Super Bowl MVP Troy Aikman

Win Probability

Pro-Football-Reference.com Win Probability - Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills, 1/31/1993Q1Q2Q3Q4EOGDAL0.50BUF-14.9%-14.9%-9.5%-9.5%-14.8%-14.8%+10.2%+10.2%
Play IDWin Pct
10.322
20.347
30.34
40.347
50.299
60.322
70.336
80.352
90.385
100.449
110.482
120.448
130.5
140.49
150.531
160.507
170.526
180.511
190.487
200.498
210.494
220.517
230.559
240.553
250.531
260.51
270.483
280.577
290.621
300.472
310.495
320.541
330.446
340.456
350.427
360.334
370.324
380.176
390.155
400.192
410.199
420.214
430.316
440.305
450.284
460.238
470.147
480.153
490.13
500.132
510.116
520.126
530.139
540.154
550.145
560.158
570.165
580.174
590.157
600.187
610.257
620.253
630.279
640.293
650.267
660.289
670.226
680.224
690.201
700.193
710.174
720.188
730.116
740.071
750.074
760.028
770.014
780.015
790.012
800.014
810.019
820.011
830.01
840.006
850.013
860.012
870.01
880.008
890.007
900.008
910.003
920.003
930.002
940.001
950.002
960.002
970.003
980.003
990.003
1000.003
1010.003
1020.004
1030.003
1040.003
1050.002
1060.001
1070.001
1080.001
1090
1100
1110
1120.001
1130.002
1140.002
1150.003
1160.002
1170.001
1180.011
1190.008
1200.005
1210.011
1220.011
1230.007
1240.005
1250.004
1260.002
1270.001
1280.002
1290.001
1300
1310
1320
1330
1340
1350
1360
1370
1380
1390
1400
1410
1420
1430
1440
1450
1460
1470
1480
1490
1500
1510
1520
1530
1540
1550
1560
1570
1580
1590
1600
1610
1620
1630
1640
1650
Embed this graph...
The win probability graph is intended to be a measure of a team's chance of winning the game after every play of the game, based on the line, current score, and current field position. For a detailed explanation, see Neil's writeup on the Win Probability Model

Scoring

Team Stats


Passing, Rushing, & Receiving

Defense

Kick/Punt Returns

Kicking & Punting

Starting Lineups

Full Play-By-Play

Play Times Note  · Glossary  · SHARE  · Embed  · CSV  · Export  · PRE  · LINK  · ?
Quarter Time Down ToGo Location Detail DAL BUF EPB EPA Win%

1st Quarter
1 15:00


Lin Elliott kicks off 65 yards, touchback 0 0 0 0.28 32.2
1 14:44 1 10 BUF 20 Jim Kelly pass complete to Andre Reed for 14 yards 0 0 0.28 1.2 34.7
1 14:28 1 10 BUF 34 Thurman Thomas for 2 yards 0 0 1.2 0.93 34.0
1 14:12 2 8 BUF 36 Jim Kelly pass complete to Thurman Thomas for 7 yards 0 0 0.93 1.16 34.7
1 13:56 3 1 BUF 43 Jim Kelly sacked for -2 yards 0 0 1.16 -0.65 29.9
1 13:40 4 3 BUF 41 Chris Mohr punts 45 yards 0 0 -0.65 0.22 32.2
1 13:19 1 10 DAL 15 Troy Aikman pass complete to Emmitt Smith for no gain 0 0 -0.22 -0.71 33.6
1 12:55 2 10 DAL 15 Emmitt Smith for 1 yard 0 0 -0.71 -1.25 35.2
1 12:31 3 9 DAL 16 Troy Aikman pass incomplete intended for Michael Irvin 0 0 -1.25 -2.39 38.5
1 12:07 4 9 DAL 16 0 0 -2.39 -4.51 44.9
1 11:40 1 10 DAL 16 Thurman Thomas for 9 yards 0 0 4.51 5.54 48.2
1 11:20 2 1 DAL 7 Thurman Thomas for -2 yards 0 0 5.54 4.39 44.8
1 11:00 3 3 DAL 9 0 0 4.39 6.06 50.0
1 10:40 1 5 DAL 5 Thurman Thomas for 3 yards 0 0 6.06 5.72 49.0
1 10:20 2 2 DAL 2 Thurman Thomas for 2 yards, touchdown 0 7 5.72 7 53.1
1 10:00


Steve Christie kicks off 59 yards, returned by Kelvin Martin for 22 yards 0 7 0 0.81 50.7
1 9:36 1 10 DAL 28 Emmitt Smith for no gain 0 7 0.81 0.26 52.6
1 9:12 2 10 DAL 28 Troy Aikman pass complete to Jay Novacek for 9 yards 0 7 0.26 0.76 51.1
1 8:48 3 1 DAL 37 Emmitt Smith for 3 yards 0 7 0.76 1.6 48.7
1 8:24 1 10 DAL 40 0 7 1.6 1.27 49.8
1 8:00 1 15 DAL 35 Troy Aikman pass complete to Daryl Johnston for 8 yards 0 7 1.27 1.46 49.4
1 7:36 2 7 DAL 43 Troy Aikman pass incomplete intended for Jay Novacek 0 7 1.46 0.76 51.7
1 7:12 3 7 DAL 43 Troy Aikman pass incomplete intended for Kelvin Martin 0 7 0.76 -0.52 55.9
1 6:48 4 7 DAL 43 Mike Saxon punts 57 yards, touchback 0 7 -0.52 -0.28 55.3
1 6:21 1 10 BUF 20 Thurman Thomas for -1 yards 0 7 0.28 -0.46 53.1
1 6:05 2 11 BUF 19 Thurman Thomas for no gain 0 7 -0.46 -1.14 51.0
1 5:49 3 11 BUF 19 0 7 -1.14 -2.03 48.3
1 5:33 3 16 BUF 14 0 7 -2.03 0.87 57.7
1 5:17 1 10 BUF 29 Jim Kelly pass complete to Andre Reed for 21 yards 0 7 0.87 2.26 62.1
1 5:01 1 10 BUF 50 Jim Kelly pass incomplete intended for Pete Metzelaars is intercepted by James Washington 0 7 2.26 -2.46 47.2
1 4:40 1 10 BUF 47 Emmitt Smith for -1 yards 0 7 2.46 1.78 49.5
1 4:10 2 11 BUF 48 Troy Aikman pass complete to Emmitt Smith for -5 yards 0 7 1.78 0.43 54.1
1 3:40 3 16 DAL 47 Troy Aikman pass complete to Michael Irvin for 20 yards 0 7 0.43 3.38 44.6
1 3:10 1 10 BUF 33 Troy Aikman for 2 yards 0 7 3.38 3.11 45.6
1 2:40 2 8 BUF 31 Emmitt Smith for 8 yards 0 7 3.11 4.04 42.7
1 2:10 1 10 BUF 23 Troy Aikman pass complete to Jay Novacek for 23 yards, touchdown 7 7 4.04 7 33.4
1 1:36


Lin Elliott kicks off 61 yards, returned by Brad Lamb for 16 yards 7 7 0 -0.38 32.4
1 1:22 1 10 BUF 10 Jim Kelly sacked for -8 yards. Jim Kelly fumbles, recovered by Jimmie Jones and returned for 2 yards, touchdown 13 7 -0.38 -7 17.6
1



Lin Elliott kicks extra point good 14 7 0 0 15.5
1 1:21


Lin Elliott kicks off 61 yards, returned by Brad Lamb for 33 yards. Brad Lamb fumbles, recovered by Keith Goganious 14 7 0 1.73 19.2
1 1:21 1 10 BUF 42 Kenneth Davis for 6 yards 14 7 1.73 2 19.9
1 0:41 2 4 BUF 48 Kenneth Davis for 8 yards 14 7 2 2.65 21.4
Quarter Time Down ToGo Location Detail DAL BUF EPB EPA Win%

2nd Quarter
2 15:00 1 10 DAL 44 Jim Kelly pass complete to Andre Reed for 40 yards 14 7 2.65 6.28 31.6
2 14:24 1 4 DAL 4 Carwell Gardner for 3 yards 14 7 6.28 5.91 30.5
2 13:48 2 1 DAL 1 Thurman Thomas for no gain 14 7 5.91 5.17 28.4
2 13:12 3 1 DAL 1 Kenneth Davis for no gain 14 7 5.17 3.55 23.8
2 12:36 4 1 DAL 1 Jim Kelly pass incomplete intended for Carwell Gardner is intercepted by Thomas Everett 14 7 3.55 -0.28 14.7
2 11:59 1 10 DAL 20 Emmitt Smith for 2 yards 14 7 0.28 0 15.3
2 11:26 2 8 DAL 22 Troy Aikman pass complete to Jay Novacek for 11 yards 14 7 0 1.14 13.0
2 10:53 1 10 DAL 33 Emmitt Smith for 3 yards 14 7 1.14 1 13.2
2 10:20 2 7 DAL 36 Troy Aikman for 7 yards 14 7 1 1.8 11.6
2 9:47 1 10 DAL 43 Emmitt Smith for no gain 14 7 1.8 1.25 12.6
2 9:14 2 10 DAL 43 Troy Aikman pass incomplete intended for Michael Irvin 14 7 1.25 0.56 13.9
2 8:36 3 10 DAL 43 Troy Aikman pass complete to Jay Novacek for 5 yards 14 7 0.56 -0.19 15.4
2 8:23 4 5 DAL 48 Mike Saxon punts 37 yards 14 7 -0.19 0.22 14.5
2 8:10 1 10 BUF 15 Kenneth Davis for 7 yards 14 7 -0.22 0.35 15.8
2 7:48 2 3 BUF 22 Kenneth Davis for 4 yards 14 7 0.35 0.67 16.5
2 7:26 1 10 BUF 26 Kenneth Davis for 7 yards 14 7 0.67 1.07 17.4
2 7:04 2 3 BUF 33 Jim Kelly pass incomplete intended for Andre Reed 14 7 1.07 0.37 15.7
2 6:42 3 3 BUF 33 Frank Reich pass complete to Pete Metzelaars for 7 yards 14 7 0.37 1.6 18.7
2 6:20 1 10 BUF 40 Frank Reich pass complete to Andre Reed for 38 yards 14 7 1.6 4.11 25.7
2 5:58 1 10 DAL 22 Kenneth Davis for 3 yards 14 7 4.11 3.97 25.3
2 5:36 2 7 DAL 19 Kenneth Davis for 7 yards 14 7 3.97 4.78 27.9
2 5:14 1 10 DAL 12 Thurman Thomas for 6 yards 14 7 4.78 5.21 29.3
2 4:52 2 4 DAL 6 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for Don Beebe 14 7 5.21 4.38 26.7
2 4:30 3 4 DAL 6 14 7 4.38 5.06 28.9
2 4:08 3 1 DAL 3 Thurman Thomas for no gain 14 7 5.06 3.06 22.6
2 3:46 4 1 DAL 3 Steve Christie 21 yard field goal good 14 10 3.06 3 22.4
2 3:24


Steve Christie kicks off 58 yards, returned by Kelvin Martin for 21 yards 14 10 0 0.81 20.1
2 3:07 1 10 DAL 28 Troy Aikman pass complete to Emmitt Smith for 6 yards 14 10 0.81 1.07 19.3
2 2:50 2 4 DAL 34 Troy Aikman pass complete to Jay Novacek for 9 yards 14 10 1.07 1.8 17.4
2 2:33 1 10 DAL 43 Troy Aikman pass incomplete 14 10 1.8 1.25 18.8
2 2:16 2 10 DAL 43 Emmitt Smith for 38 yards 14 10 1.25 4.31 11.6
2 1:58 1 10 BUF 19 Troy Aikman pass complete to Michael Irvin for 19 yards, touchdown 21 10 4.31 7 7.1
2 1:54


Lin Elliott kicks off 65 yards, touchback 21 10 0 0.28 7.4
2 1:49 1 10 BUF 20 Frank Reich pass complete to Thurman Thomas for -1 yards. Thurman Thomas fumbles, recovered by Jimmie Jones 21 10 0.28 -4.37 2.8
2 1:43 1 10 BUF 18 Troy Aikman pass complete to Michael Irvin for 18 yards, touchdown 28 10 4.37 7 1.4
2 1:36


Lin Elliott kicks off 65 yards, touchback 28 10 0 0.28 1.5
2 1:36 1 10 BUF 20 Frank Reich for no gain. Frank Reich fumbles, recovered by Kenneth Davis 28 10 0.28 -0.63 1.2
2 0:52 2 12 BUF 18 Frank Reich pass complete to Andre Reed for 11 yards 28 10 -0.63 0.23 1.4
2 0:52 3 1 BUF 29 28 10 0.23 1.2 1.9
2 0:41 1 10 BUF 34 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for Don Beebe is intercepted by Larry Brown 28 10 1.2 -0.81 1.1
2 0:30 1 10 DAL 28 Emmitt Smith for 7 yards 28 10 0.81 1.21 1.0
2 0:19 2 3 DAL 35 Troy Aikman pass complete to Michael Irvin for 20 yards 28 10 1.21 2.59 0.6
2 0:12 1 10 BUF 45 Troy Aikman pass complete to Emmitt Smith for 5 yards 28 10 2.59 2.72 1.3

End of Half28102.720
Quarter Time Down ToGo Location Detail DAL BUF EPB EPA Win%

3rd Quarter
3 15:00


-- 28 10 0 0.34 1.2
3 14:30 1 10 DAL 21 Emmitt Smith for 7 yards 28 10 0.34 0.75 1.0
3 14:00 2 3 DAL 28 Emmitt Smith for 11 yards 28 10 0.75 1.53 0.8
3 13:30 1 10 DAL 39 Troy Aikman pass complete to Daryl Johnston for 7 yards 28 10 1.53 1.93 0.7
3 13:00 2 3 DAL 46 Daryl Johnston for no gain 28 10 1.93 1.22 0.8
3 12:30 3 3 DAL 46 Troy Aikman pass complete to Michael Irvin for 25 yards 28 10 1.22 3.64 0.3
3 12:00 1 10 BUF 29 Emmitt Smith for 7 yards 28 10 3.64 4.05 0.3
3 11:30 2 3 BUF 22 Emmitt Smith for 3 yards 28 10 4.05 4.31 0.2
3 11:00 1 10 BUF 19 Troy Aikman pass complete to Michael Irvin for 12 yards 28 10 4.31 5.6 0.1
3 10:30 1 7 BUF 7 Derrick Gainer for no gain 28 10 5.6 4.76 0.2
3 10:00 2 7 BUF 7 Troy Aikman pass complete to Jay Novacek for 5 yards 28 10 4.76 4.95 0.2
3 9:30 3 2 BUF 2 Troy Aikman pass incomplete intended for Jay Novacek 28 10 4.95 3.25 0.3
3 9:00 4 2 BUF 2 Lin Elliott 20 yard field goal good 31 10 3.25 3 0.3
3 8:21


Lin Elliott kicks off 59 yards, returned by Kenneth Davis for 21 yards 31 10 0 0.74 0.3
3 8:04 1 10 BUF 27 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for Keith McKeller 31 10 0.74 0.2 0.3
3 7:47 2 10 BUF 27 Frank Reich pass complete to Andre Reed for 8 yards 31 10 0.2 0.56 0.3
3 7:30 3 2 BUF 35 Frank Reich pass complete to Keith McKeller for 6 yards 31 10 0.56 1.66 0.4
3 7:13 1 10 BUF 41 Frank Reich pass complete to Thurman Thomas for no gain 31 10 1.66 1.12 0.3
3 6:56 2 10 BUF 41 Frank Reich pass complete to Thurman Thomas for 4 yards 31 10 1.12 0.96 0.3
3 6:39 3 6 BUF 45 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for James Lofton 31 10 0.96 -0.39 0.2
3 6:22 4 6 BUF 45 Chris Mohr punts 43 yards 31 10 -0.39 -1.73 0.1
3 6:00 1 10 DAL 42 Emmitt Smith for 3 yards 31 10 1.73 1.59 0.1
3 5:28 2 7 DAL 45 Troy Aikman pass incomplete intended for Jay Novacek 31 10 1.59 0.89 0.1
3 4:56 3 7 DAL 45 Troy Aikman pass complete to Jay Novacek for 10 yards 31 10 0.89 2.59 0.0
3 4:24 1 10 BUF 45 Emmitt Smith for 5 yards 31 10 2.59 2.72 0.0
3 3:52 2 5 BUF 40 Emmitt Smith for 3 yards 31 10 2.72 2.41 0.0
3 3:20 3 2 BUF 37 Emmitt Smith for -1 yards 31 10 2.41 0.72 0.1
3 2:48 4 3 BUF 38 Troy Aikman pass incomplete 31 10 0.72 -1.53 0.2
3 2:10 1 10 BUF 39 Kenneth Davis for 12 yards 31 10 1.53 2.32 0.2
3 1:44 1 10 DAL 49 Frank Reich pass complete to Andre Reed for 13 yards 31 10 2.32 3.18 0.3
3 1:18 1 10 DAL 36 Kenneth Davis for -4 yards 31 10 3.18 2.1 0.2
3 0:52 2 14 DAL 40 Frank Reich pass complete to Kenneth Davis for no gain 31 10 2.1 1.42 0.1
3 0:26 3 14 DAL 40 Frank Reich pass complete to Don Beebe for 40 yards, touchdown 31 17 1.42 7 1.1
Quarter Time Down ToGo Location Detail DAL BUF EPB EPA Win%

4th Quarter
4 15:00


Steve Christie kicks off 57 yards, returned by Kelvin Martin for 15 yards 31 17 0 0.48 0.8
4 14:50 1 10 DAL 23 Troy Aikman for 19 yards 31 17 0.48 1.73 0.5
4 14:14 1 10 DAL 42 Emmitt Smith for -12 yards. Emmitt Smith fumbles, recovered by Troy Aikman 31 17 1.73 -0.43 1.1
4 13:38 2 22 DAL 30 Troy Aikman pass complete to Emmitt Smith for 3 yards 31 17 -0.43 -0.69 1.1
4 13:02 3 19 DAL 33 Troy Aikman pass complete to Emmitt Smith for 18 yards 31 17 -0.69 0 0.7
4 12:26 4 1 BUF 49 Mike Saxon punts 37 yards. Cliff Hicks fumbles, recovered by Cliff Hicks 31 17 0 0.35 0.5
4 11:46 1 10 BUF 12 Thurman Thomas for no gain 31 17 -0.35 -0.78 0.4
4 11:33 2 10 BUF 12 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for Andre Reed 31 17 -0.78 -1.42 0.2
4 11:20 3 10 BUF 12 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for James Lofton 31 17 -1.42 -2.49 0.1
4 11:07 4 10 BUF 12 Chris Mohr punts 48 yards 31 17 -2.49 -1.86 0.2
4 10:54 1 10 DAL 44 Emmitt Smith for 11 yards 31 17 1.86 2.59 0.1
4 10:29 1 10 BUF 45 Troy Aikman pass complete to Alvin Harper for 45 yards, touchdown 38 17 2.59 7 0.0
4 10:04


Lin Elliott kicks off 65 yards, touchback 38 17 0 0.28 0.0
4 9:59 1 10 BUF 20 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for Kenneth Davis 38 17 0.28 -0.27 0.0
4 9:50 2 10 BUF 20 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for James Lofton is intercepted by Thomas Everett 38 17 -0.27 -5.37 0.0
4 9:41 1 8 BUF 8 Emmitt Smith for no gain 38 17 5.37 4.57 0.0
4 9:12 2 8 BUF 8 Troy Aikman sacked for -2 yards 38 17 4.57 3.13 0.0
4 8:43 3 10 BUF 10 Emmitt Smith for 10 yards, touchdown 45 17 3.13 7 0.0
4 8:12


Lin Elliott kicks off 65 yards, touchback 45 17 0 0.28 0.0
4 8:02 1 10 BUF 20 Frank Reich pass complete to Andre Reed for 7 yards 45 17 0.28 0.68 0.0
4 7:52 2 3 BUF 27 45 17 0.68 0 0.0
4 7:42 2 8 BUF 22 . Frank Reich fumbles, recovered by Ken Norton and returned for 9 yards, touchdown 51 17 0 -7 0.0
4



Lin Elliott kicks extra point good 52 17 0 0 0.0
4 7:31


Lin Elliott kicks off 60 yards, returned by Cliff Hicks for 20 yards 52 17 0 0.61 0.0
4 7:20 1 10 BUF 25 Frank Reich pass complete to Steve Tasker for 16 yards. Steve Tasker fumbles, recovered by Clayton Holmes 52 17 0.61 -2.65 0.0
4 7:06 1 10 BUF 44 Derrick Gainer for 1 yard 52 17 2.65 2.25 0.0
4 6:40 2 9 BUF 43 Steve Beuerlein for no gain. Steve Beuerlein fumbles, recovered by Phil Hansen 52 17 2.25 -2.06 0.0
4 6:14 1 10 BUF 47 Frank Reich pass complete to Kenneth Davis for 3 yards 52 17 2.06 1.92 0.0
4 6:01 2 7 BUF 50 Frank Reich pass complete to Steve Tasker for 14 yards 52 17 1.92 3.18 0.0
4 5:48 1 10 DAL 36 52 17 3.18 3.91 0.0
4 5:35 1 5 DAL 31 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for Don Beebe 52 17 3.91 3.31 0.0
4 5:22 2 5 DAL 31 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for Steve Tasker 52 17 3.31 2.61 0.0
4 5:09 3 5 DAL 31 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for James Lofton 52 17 2.61 1.35 0.0
4 4:56 4 5 DAL 31 Frank Reich sacked for -4 yards. Frank Reich fumbles, recovered by Leon Lett and returned for 64 yards 52 17 1.35 0.28 0.0
4 4:42 1 10 BUF 20 52 17 0.28 0.67 0.0
4 4:19 1 10 BUF 26 Kenneth Davis for 5 yards 52 17 0.67 0.81 0.0
4 3:56 2 5 BUF 31 52 17 0.81 -0.55 0.0
4 3:33 2 15 BUF 21 Kenneth Davis for 2 yards 52 17 -0.55 -0.96 0.0
4 3:10 3 13 BUF 23 Frank Reich pass complete to Kenneth Davis for 13 yards 52 17 -0.96 1.33 0.0
4 2:47 1 10 BUF 36 Frank Reich pass complete to Don Beebe for 10 yards 52 17 1.33 1.99 0.0
4 2:24 1 10 BUF 46 Frank Reich pass complete to Pete Metzelaars for 5 yards 52 17 1.99 2.13 0.0
4 2:00 2 5 DAL 49 Kenneth Davis for 14 yards 52 17 2.13 3.25 0.0
4 1:32 1 10 DAL 35 Kenneth Davis for 8 yards 52 17 3.25 3.78 0.0
4 1:10 2 2 DAL 27 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for James Lofton 52 17 3.78 3.07 0.0
4 0:58 3 2 DAL 27 Kenneth Davis for 7 yards 52 17 3.07 4.24 0.0
4 0:36 1 10 DAL 20 Frank Reich pass incomplete intended for James Lofton 52 17 4.24 3.69 0.0
4 0:22 2 10 DAL 20 Frank Reich sacked for -8 yards 52 17 3.69 1.95 0.0

End of Regulation52171.950
Scoring plays are highlighted in green and accepted penalties are highlighted in gray, while changes of possession are denoted by a bold line. Expected points before and after are relative to the team possessing the ball at the start of the play (though kickoffs are assumed to be in possession of the receiving team).

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